This research takes place in a context where the rapid decarbonization of the global energy system is essential to limit the effects of climate change, but where the supply of critical mineral resources may become a major constraint. While most current studies focus on the material needs associated with the energy transition, they tend to overlook the fact that the majority of metal demand originates from the rest of the economy, representing more than 90% of total uses. However, available data remain insufficiently detailed to anticipate the future evolution of this demand. It is therefore urgent to move beyond a narrow, sector-specific analysis and to adopt an integrated vision of mineral resource needs that encompasses the entire global economy.

The central objective of this project is to identify the efforts required to implement prospective scenarios and to anticipate the evolution of critical mineral resource use by 2050, beyond the energy-related sectors alone. To achieve this, three methodological steps are planned. First, to establish a systematic overview of current resource use in the rest of the economy through the construction of a novel technological and sectoral database, including sectors such as digital technologies, defense, healthcare, and agriculture. Second, to translate future demand using existing scenarios by combining this database with contrasting socio-economic pathways to project metal consumption by 2050. Third, to develop an optimization framework to identify trade-offs between supply and demand, integrating constraints such as mine development timelines, regional resource availability, recycling rates, and intersectoral competition.

This work will contribute to identifying the conditions required to ensure sustainable and realistic trajectories for the supply of critical mineral resources, guaranteeing both the success of the energy transition and the resilience of other vital sectors of the economy.